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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Shane Roller won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1490

John AlessiovsShane RollerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · Saturday, July 7, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Shane Roller won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Alessio: Submission grapplervsShane Roller: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Shane Roller wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Shane Roller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shane Roller at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shane Roller enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
John Alessio has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

John Alessio

Red Corner

Shane Roller

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1352

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Alessio

oldest →

vs Mark Bocek · Apr 12

latest

Shane RollerL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Tavares · Mar 11

KOvs Melvin Guillard · Jul 11

SUBvs TJ Grant · Oct 11

vs Michael Johnson · Jan 12

SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · Oct 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John AlessioMetricShane Roller

2.10

Strikes / min

2.04

2.91

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

54%

Strike defense

60%

1.85

TDs / 15 min

2.46

70%

Takedown defense

42%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.81evenly matched on net striking-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John AlessioShane Roller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Alessio(2 fights)Shane Roller(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.6|Blue +138.6

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John AlessioTargetShane Roller

By target zone

29% acc · 80%

Head

36% acc · 65%

88% acc · 20%

Body

60% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 26%

By position

31% acc · 83%

Distance

34% acc · 65%

71% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

33% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Alessio rounds

even

Shane Roller rounds

Round 1John Alessio edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control1:20

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Shane Roller edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:20

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:58Control

Round 3Shane Roller edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:24

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 103

Sig Strikes

31 / 69

32%

Sig Str %

50.3%

63 / 134

Total Strikes

82 / 128

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 7

TD %

46.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:04

Ctrl Time

7:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shane Roller	15 / 42	17 / 44	0 / 1
1	John Alessio	23 / 68	36 / 82	0 / 1
2	Shane Roller	11 / 18	43 / 53	1 / 1
2	John Alessio	3 / 14	4 / 15	0 / 0
3	Shane Roller	5 / 9	22 / 31	2 / 5
3	John Alessio	9 / 21	23 / 37	0 / 0

John Alessio

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2

Shane Roller

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6