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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Erik Perez won · SUB R1
Elo1352
Elo1491

John AlbertvsErik PerezUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · Friday, June 1, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Erik Perez won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:18

Model Prediction: John Albert wins(66.8%)

Actual result: Erik Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Albert at -185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • John Albert enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Erik Perez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Erik Perez has 31pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Erik Perez has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

John Albert
Red Corner
VS
Erik Perez
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1352
Elo
1491
39
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'8"
172.72 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John AlbertL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Dustin Pague · Dec 11
L
SUBvs Ivan Menjivar · Feb 12
L
SUBvs Scott Jorgensen · Dec 12
L
SUBvs Yaotzin Meza · Jul 13
latest
Erik PerezW3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Edwin Figueroa · Nov 13
L
SUBvs Bryan Caraway · Jun 14
W
vs Taylor Lapilus · Nov 15
W
vs Francisco Rivera · Jul 16
W
vs Felipe Arantes · Nov 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John AlbertMetricErik Perez
3.05
Strikes / min
3.16
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
2.09
35%
Strike defense
66%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
3.16
50%
Takedown defense
69%
6.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.23evenly matched on net striking+1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1500Strikes26.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts1.50 vs —Form-0.1 vs 0.0
John AlbertErik Perez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
John Albert(5 fights)Erik Perez(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.4|Blue +138.4
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -49.1|Blue +49.1
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John AlbertTargetErik Perez

By target zone

3
17% acc · 50%
Head
8
53% acc · 44%
2
40% acc · 33%
Body
7
88% acc · 39%
1
100% acc · 17%
Leg
3
100% acc · 17%

By position

4
20% acc · 67%
Distance
11
69% acc · 61%
2
50% acc · 33%
Clinch
2
50% acc · 11%
0
Ground
5
83% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
John Albert rounds
0
even
1
Erik Perez rounds
Round 1Erik Perez edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:53
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:34Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 24
Sig Strikes
18 / 26
25%
Sig Str %
69%
25 / 44
Total Strikes
59 / 81
0 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
1
0:53
Ctrl Time
2:34

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Erik Perez18 / 2659 / 810 / 01
1John Albert6 / 2425 / 440 / 32

John Albert

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5

Erik Perez

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights9