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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Stipe Miocic won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1494

Joey BeltranvsStipe MiocicUFC Prediction Result

UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · Saturday, October 8, 2011Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Stipe Miocic won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoey Beltran: Pressure fightervsStipe Miocic: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Joey Beltran wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Stipe Miocic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joey Beltran at +255 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joey Beltran enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joey Beltran is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Stipe Miocic has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Stipe Miocic has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joey Beltran

Red Corner

Stipe Miocic

Blue Corner

+255

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-280

(74%)

1352

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joey BeltranL3 streak

oldest →

vs Pat Barry · Jan 11

KOvs Aaron Rosa · Jun 11

KOvs Lavar Johnson · Jan 12

vs James Te Huna · Jul 12

vs Fabio Maldonado · Oct 13

latest

Stipe MiocicL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19

vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21

KOvs Jon Jones · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joey BeltranMetricStipe Miocic

4.92

Strikes / min

4.67

5.27

Strikes absorbed / min

4.01

54%

Strike defense

52%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

1.74

75%

Takedown defense

65%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joey BeltranStipe Miocic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joey Beltran(8 fights)Stipe Miocic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -141.5|Blue +141.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -46.9|Blue +46.9

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joey BeltranTargetStipe Miocic

By target zone

28% acc · 69%

Head

35% acc · 56%

79% acc · 21%

Body

82% acc · 13%

63% acc · 10%

Leg

95% acc · 31%

By position

29% acc · 69%

Distance

41% acc · 65%

64% acc · 17%

Clinch

75% acc · 18%

58% acc · 13%

Ground

63% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joey Beltran rounds

even

Stipe Miocic rounds

Round 1Stipe Miocic edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:03

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:59Control

Round 2Joey Beltran edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns1

Control0:53

24Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:13Control

Round 3Stipe Miocic edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 152

Sig Strikes

68 / 142

30.7%

Sig Str %

47.7%

80 / 182

Total Strikes

103 / 180

1 / 2

TDs

4 / 7

50%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

6:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stipe Miocic	25 / 54	35 / 65	1 / 1
1	Joey Beltran	11 / 51	20 / 60	0 / 0
2	Stipe Miocic	24 / 47	31 / 55	2 / 2
2	Joey Beltran	34 / 66	45 / 77	1 / 2
3	Stipe Miocic	19 / 41	37 / 60	1 / 4
3	Joey Beltran	7 / 35	15 / 45	0 / 0

Joey Beltran

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19