Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Lavar Johnson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1352

Joey BeltranvsLavar JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · Saturday, January 28, 2012Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Lavar Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:24

Style matchupJoey Beltran: Pressure fightervsLavar Johnson: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Lavar Johnson wins(52.9%)

Actual result: Lavar Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lavar Johnson at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joey Beltran enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joey Beltran has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Lavar Johnson has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joey Beltran

Red Corner

Lavar Johnson

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1352

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joey BeltranL3 streak

oldest →

vs Pat Barry · Jan 11

KOvs Aaron Rosa · Jun 11

vs Stipe Miocic · Oct 11

vs James Te Huna · Jul 12

vs Fabio Maldonado · Oct 13

latest

Lavar JohnsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Pat Barry · May 12

SUBvs Stefan Struve · May 12

vs Brendan Schaub · Feb 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joey BeltranMetricLavar Johnson

4.92

Strikes / min

5.39

5.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.54

54%

Strike defense

55%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

0.61

75%

Takedown defense

54%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35Δ 3.20 — meaningful gap+2.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joey BeltranLavar Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joey Beltran(8 fights)Lavar Johnson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -46.7|Blue +46.7

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joey BeltranTargetLavar Johnson

By target zone

19% acc · 50%

Head

65% acc · 75%

70% acc · 32%

Body

91% acc · 15%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

28% acc · 86%

Distance

68% acc · 78%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

82% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joey Beltran rounds

even

Lavar Johnson rounds

Round 1Lavar Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns0

65Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 71

Sig Strikes

65 / 92

30%

Sig Str %

70%

36 / 85

Total Strikes

66 / 93

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

1:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lavar Johnson	65 / 92	66 / 93	0 / 0	0
1	Joey Beltran	22 / 71	36 / 85	0 / 3	0

Joey Beltran

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8

Lavar Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights4