Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Joey Beltran won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1352

Elo1490

Joey BeltranvsAaron RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · Saturday, June 11, 2011Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Joey Beltran won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:26

Style matchupJoey Beltran: Pressure fightervsAaron Rosa: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Joey Beltran wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Joey Beltran wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joey Beltran at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joey Beltran enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Joey Beltran is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Aaron Rosa has lost 100% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Joey Beltran

Red Corner

Aaron Rosa

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1352

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joey BeltranL5 streak

oldest →

vs Pat Barry · Jan 11

vs Stipe Miocic · Oct 11

KOvs Lavar Johnson · Jan 12

vs James Te Huna · Jul 12

vs Fabio Maldonado · Oct 13

latest

Aaron Rosa

oldest →

vs Matt Lucas · Nov 11

KOvs James Te Huna · Mar 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joey BeltranMetricAaron Rosa

4.92

Strikes / min

4.03

5.27

Strikes absorbed / min

4.41

54%

Strike defense

45%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

0.36

75%

Takedown defense

85%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joey BeltranAaron Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joey Beltran(8 fights)Aaron Rosa(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.7|Blue +137.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -47.0|Blue +47.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joey BeltranTargetAaron Rosa

By target zone

36% acc · 60%

Head

35% acc · 77%

84% acc · 18%

Body

81% acc · 18%

83% acc · 22%

Leg

80% acc · 5%

By position

38% acc · 67%

Distance

39% acc · 85%

81% acc · 25%

Clinch

58% acc · 15%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joey Beltran rounds

even

Aaron Rosa rounds

Round 1Joey Beltran edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control3:04

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Joey Beltran edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control1:33

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Joey Beltran edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:42

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 188

Sig Strikes

73 / 179

47%

Sig Str %

38%

185 / 304

Total Strikes

135 / 258

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:19

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aaron Rosa	28 / 79	55 / 115	0 / 0
1	Joey Beltran	34 / 74	91 / 141	0 / 3
2	Aaron Rosa	39 / 81	71 / 121	0 / 0
2	Joey Beltran	42 / 90	66 / 118	0 / 0
3	Aaron Rosa	6 / 19	9 / 22	0 / 1
3	Joey Beltran	12 / 24	28 / 45	1 / 1

Joey Beltran

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8

Aaron Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3