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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Yaroslav Amosov won · Submission R2
Elo1514
Joel Alvarez
Elo1545

Joel AlvarezvsYaroslav AmosovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · Saturday, May 9, 2026Newark, USA

Official fight result

Yaroslav Amosov won

Submission · Round 2 · 1:13

Model Prediction: Yaroslav Amosov wins(59.7%)

Actual result: Yaroslav Amosov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joel Alvarez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Yaroslav Amosov threatens submissions; Joel Alvarez has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Joel Alvarez has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joel Alvarez
Red Corner
VS
Yaroslav Amosov
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1514
Elo
1545
33
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'0"
195.58 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joel AlvarezW4 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22
W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23
W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24
W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24
W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25
latest
Yaroslav Amosov
oldest →
W
SUBvs Neil Magny · Dec 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joel AlvarezMetricYaroslav Amosov
4.53
Strikes / min
2.65
3.03
Strikes absorbed / min
1.38
53%
Strike defense
60%
0.18
TDs / 15 min
11.11
46%
Takedown defense
0%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
3.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.50evenly matched on net striking+1.27
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901508152515431560← oldermost recent →
Joel Alvarez(10 fights)Yaroslav Amosov(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -31.7|Blue +31.7
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Layoff
Red +63.0|Blue -63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Joel Alvarez

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights11

Yaroslav Amosov

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights2