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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joel Alvarez won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1514

Elo1487

Joel AlvarezvsElves BrenerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Saturday, August 3, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Joel Alvarez won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:36

Model Prediction: Joel Alvarez wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joel Alvarez at -166 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Elves Brener has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Joel Alvarez has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joel Alvarez

Red Corner

Elves Brener

Blue Corner

-166

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1514

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joel Alvarez

oldest →

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22

SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23

KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24

vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26

latest

Elves BrenerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Zubaira Tukhugov · Feb 23

KOvs Guram Kutateladze · Jul 23

KOvs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Nov 23

vs Myktybek Orolbai · May 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joel AlvarezMetricElves Brener

4.53

Strikes / min

4.76

3.03

Strikes absorbed / min

5.86

53%

Strike defense

50%

0.18

TDs / 15 min

0.99

46%

Takedown defense

76%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.50Δ 2.60 — meaningful gap-1.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joel AlvarezElves Brener

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joel Alvarez(10 fights)Elves Brener(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.3|Blue -26.3

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +287.0|Blue -287.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joel AlvarezTargetElves Brener

By target zone

60% acc · 71%

Head

29% acc · 38%

92% acc · 25%

Body

44% acc · 16%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

91% acc · 47%

By position

63% acc · 75%

Distance

47% acc · 100%

83% acc · 25%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joel Alvarez rounds

even

Elves Brener rounds

Round 1Joel Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:48

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Joel Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Joel Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

95 / 141

Sig Strikes

45 / 97

67.3%

Sig Str %

46.3%

114 / 164

Total Strikes

45 / 98

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 5

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:51

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Elves Brener	15 / 27	15 / 28	0 / 3	0
1	Joel Alvarez	25 / 36	39 / 52	0 / 1	1
2	Elves Brener	18 / 42	18 / 42	0 / 2	0
2	Joel Alvarez	31 / 45	32 / 46	0 / 0	0
3	Elves Brener	12 / 28	12 / 28	0 / 0	0
3	Joel Alvarez	39 / 60	43 / 66	0 / 0	0

Joel Alvarez

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights11

Elves Brener

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6