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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joel Alvarez won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1514

Elo1513

Joel AlvarezvsDrakkar KloseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · Saturday, December 14, 2024Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Joel Alvarez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:48

Model Prediction: Drakkar Klose wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Drakkar Klose at +330 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Drakkar Klose enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Joel Alvarez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Drakkar Klose has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Drakkar Klose has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Joel Alvarez has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joel Alvarez

Red Corner

Drakkar Klose

Blue Corner

-425

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1514

Elo

1513

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'9"

195.58 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joel Alvarez

oldest →

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22

SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23

KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24

vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26

latest

Drakkar KloseW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brandon Jenkins · Apr 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Jul 22

KOvs Joe Solecki · Dec 23

vs Joaquim Silva · May 24

vs Edson Barboza · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joel AlvarezMetricDrakkar Klose

4.53

Strikes / min

4.25

3.03

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

53%

Strike defense

49%

0.18

TDs / 15 min

1.49

46%

Takedown defense

69%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.50evenly matched on net striking+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joel AlvarezDrakkar Klose

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joel Alvarez(10 fights)Drakkar Klose(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joel AlvarezTargetDrakkar Klose

By target zone

79% acc · 75%

Head

17% acc · 14%

100% acc · 20%

Body

67% acc · 29%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 57%

By position

75% acc · 60%

Distance

58% acc · 100%

100% acc · 40%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joel Alvarez rounds

even

Drakkar Klose rounds

Round 1Joel Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:04

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 24

Sig Strikes

7 / 13

83%

Sig Str %

53%

39 / 44

Total Strikes

16 / 23

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

1:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Drakkar Klose	7 / 13	16 / 23	1 / 1	0
1	Joel Alvarez	20 / 24	39 / 44	0 / 0	0

Joel Alvarez

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights11

Drakkar Klose

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12