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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joel Alvarez won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1514

Elo1376

Joel AlvarezvsDanilo BelluardoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · Saturday, June 1, 2019Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Joel Alvarez won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:22

Model Prediction: Joel Alvarez wins(61.7%)

Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joel Alvarez at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joel Alvarez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Danilo Belluardo has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Joel Alvarez has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Danilo Belluardo (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joel Alvarez

Red Corner

Danilo Belluardo

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1514

Elo

1376

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joel Alvarez

oldest →

SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23

KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24

KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24

vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26

latest

Danilo Belluardo

oldest →

KOvs Mark Madsen · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joel AlvarezMetricDanilo Belluardo

4.53

Strikes / min

1.52

3.03

Strikes absorbed / min

4.79

53%

Strike defense

41%

0.18

TDs / 15 min

3.50

46%

Takedown defense

50%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.50Δ 4.77 — meaningful gap-3.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joel AlvarezDanilo Belluardo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joel Alvarez(10 fights)Danilo Belluardo(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.2|Blue -137.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joel AlvarezTargetDanilo Belluardo

By target zone

50% acc · 84%

Head

56% acc · 69%

25% acc · 5%

Body

40% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 31%

By position

22% acc · 26%

Distance

62% acc · 62%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

76% acc · 68%

Ground

71% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joel Alvarez rounds

even

Danilo Belluardo rounds

Round 1Danilo Belluardo edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:58Control

Round 2Joel Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:17

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:24Control

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 41

Sig Strikes

13 / 20

44.5%

Sig Str %

65%

87 / 113

Total Strikes

56 / 68

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

4:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Danilo Belluardo	11 / 17	46 / 55	1 / 1
1	Joel Alvarez	6 / 16	43 / 53	0 / 0
2	Danilo Belluardo	2 / 3	10 / 13	1 / 1
2	Joel Alvarez	13 / 25	44 / 60	0 / 0

Joel Alvarez

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights11

Danilo Belluardo

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2