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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joel Alvarez won · SUB

Elo1514

Elo1391

Joel AlvarezvsAlexander YakovlevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Saturday, October 24, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Joel Alvarez won

SUB

Model Prediction: Joel Alvarez wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joel Alvarez at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Yakovlev has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alexander Yakovlev (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joel Alvarez

Red Corner

Alexander Yakovlev

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+138

(42%)

1514

Elo

1391

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joel Alvarez

oldest →

SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23

KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24

KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24

vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26

latest

Alexander Yakovlev

oldest →

KOvs George Sullivan · Jan 16

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 16

SUBvs Zak Cummings · Nov 16

SUBvs Alex Da Silva · Apr 19

vs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joel AlvarezMetricAlexander Yakovlev

4.53

Strikes / min

1.74

3.03

Strikes absorbed / min

2.41

53%

Strike defense

58%

0.18

TDs / 15 min

1.66

46%

Takedown defense

72%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.50Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap-0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joel AlvarezAlexander Yakovlev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joel Alvarez(10 fights)Alexander Yakovlev(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +123.1|Blue -123.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -252.0|Blue +252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joel AlvarezTargetAlexander Yakovlev

By target zone

33% acc · 25%

Head

Body

100% acc · 75%

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

60% acc · 75%

Distance

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joel Alvarez rounds

even

Alexander Yakovlev rounds

Round 1Alexander Yakovlev edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:57Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 6

Sig Strikes

1 / 1

66%

Sig Str %

100%

10 / 13

Total Strikes

15 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexander Yakovlev	1 / 1	15 / 16	1 / 1	0
1	Joel Alvarez	4 / 6	10 / 13	0 / 0	2

Joel Alvarez

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights11

Alexander Yakovlev

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9