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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mac Danzig won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1351

Elo1353

Joe StevensonvsMac DanzigUFC Prediction Result

UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · Saturday, December 11, 2010Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Mac Danzig won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:54

Model Prediction: Mac Danzig wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Mac Danzig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mac Danzig at +220 American odds

+$220 profit

$320 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mac Danzig enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Stevenson

Red Corner

Mac Danzig

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1351

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe StevensonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Danny Castillo · Mar 11

vs Javier Vazquez · Jun 11

latest

Mac DanzigL3 streak

oldest →

vs Matt Wiman · Oct 11

vs Efrain Escudero · Apr 12

vs Takanori Gomi · Nov 12

KOvs Melvin Guillard · Jul 13

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe StevensonMetricMac Danzig

2.05

Strikes / min

3.39

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

60%

Strike defense

57%

2.75

TDs / 15 min

1.20

39%

Takedown defense

46%

2.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe StevensonMac Danzig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Stevenson(3 fights)Mac Danzig(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +47.7|Blue -47.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe StevensonTargetMac Danzig

By target zone

24% acc · 67%

Head

37% acc · 78%

100% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 17%

Leg

50% acc · 22%

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

38% acc · 89%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Stevenson rounds

even

Mac Danzig rounds

Round 1Mac Danzig edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 19

Sig Strikes

9 / 23

31%

Sig Str %

39%

6 / 19

Total Strikes

9 / 23

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mac Danzig	9 / 23	9 / 23	0 / 0	0
1	Joe Stevenson	6 / 19	6 / 19	0 / 0	0

Joe Stevenson

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3

Mac Danzig

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7