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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Javier Vazquez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1490

Joe StevensonvsJavier VazquezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · Sunday, June 26, 2011Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Javier Vazquez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoe Stevenson: WrestlervsJavier Vazquez: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Joe Stevenson wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Javier Vazquez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Stevenson at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Javier Vazquez has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Javier Vazquez has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Javier Vazquez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joe Stevenson

Red Corner

Javier Vazquez

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1351

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe StevensonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mac Danzig · Dec 10

vs Danny Castillo · Mar 11

latest

Javier VazquezNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe StevensonMetricJavier Vazquez

2.05

Strikes / min

2.43

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

1.99

60%

Strike defense

72%

2.75

TDs / 15 min

2.56

39%

Takedown defense

57%

2.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39evenly matched on net striking+0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe StevensonJavier Vazquez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Stevenson(3 fights)Javier Vazquez(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -139.1|Blue +139.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe StevensonTargetJavier Vazquez

By target zone

29% acc · 67%

Head

36% acc · 87%

60% acc · 22%

Body

89% acc · 13%

75% acc · 11%

Leg

0% acc

By position

36% acc · 100%

Distance

37% acc · 90%

0% acc

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

Ground

71% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Stevenson rounds

even

Javier Vazquez rounds

Round 1Javier Vazquez edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:30Control

Round 2Javier Vazquez edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:20

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 3Javier Vazquez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:01

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 76

Sig Strikes

62 / 161

32%

Sig Str %

40%

29 / 78

Total Strikes

107 / 209

0 / 3

TDs

3 / 5

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:21

Ctrl Time

4:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Javier Vazquez	9 / 21	48 / 63	2 / 3	0
1	Joe Stevenson	2 / 6	3 / 7	0 / 0	1
2	Javier Vazquez	17 / 39	23 / 45	1 / 1	1
2	Joe Stevenson	5 / 23	6 / 24	0 / 3	0
3	Javier Vazquez	36 / 101	36 / 101	0 / 1	0
3	Joe Stevenson	20 / 47	20 / 47	0 / 0	0

Joe Stevenson

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3

Javier Vazquez

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights1