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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Danny Castillo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1356

Joe StevensonvsDanny CastilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · Thursday, March 3, 2011Louisville, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Danny Castillo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoe Stevenson: WrestlervsDanny Castillo: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Joe Stevenson wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Danny Castillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Stevenson at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Danny Castillo has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Stevenson

Red Corner

Danny Castillo

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1351

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe StevensonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mac Danzig · Dec 10

vs Javier Vazquez · Jun 11

latest

Danny CastilloL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14

vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14

KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15

vs Jim Miller · Jul 15

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe StevensonMetricDanny Castillo

2.05

Strikes / min

2.57

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

1.96

60%

Strike defense

62%

2.75

TDs / 15 min

2.95

39%

Takedown defense

63%

2.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe StevensonDanny Castillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Stevenson(3 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.8|Blue +4.8

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe StevensonTargetDanny Castillo

By target zone

23% acc · 75%

Head

38% acc · 55%

60% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 31%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

20% acc · 67%

Distance

39% acc · 51%

75% acc · 25%

Clinch

71% acc · 22%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

100% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Stevenson rounds

even

Danny Castillo rounds

Round 1Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:29

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:15

22Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 45

Sig Strikes

55 / 103

28.3%

Sig Str %

52.3%

21 / 55

Total Strikes

82 / 132

2 / 6

TDs

5 / 11

44.3%

TD %

40%

Sub Att

Rev

3:44

Ctrl Time

5:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Danny Castillo	19 / 36	26 / 45	1 / 5	0
1	Joe Stevenson	3 / 20	4 / 22	1 / 1	3
2	Danny Castillo	14 / 29	26 / 41	0 / 2	0
2	Joe Stevenson	6 / 15	14 / 23	1 / 3	0
3	Danny Castillo	22 / 38	30 / 46	4 / 4	0
3	Joe Stevenson	3 / 10	3 / 10	0 / 2	1

Joe Stevenson

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3

Danny Castillo

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14