← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Michinori Tanaka won · S-DEC R3

Elo1364

Elo1359

Joe SotovsMichinori TanakaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · Saturday, January 2, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michinori Tanaka won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoe Soto: Submission grapplervsMichinori Tanaka: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Michinori Tanaka wins(64.5%)

Actual result: Michinori Tanaka wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michinori Tanaka at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michinori Tanaka enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joe Soto has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Joe Soto has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Soto

Red Corner

Michinori Tanaka

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1364

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe SotoL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Beal · Jun 16

SUBvs Marco Beltran · Nov 16

vs Rani Yahya · Mar 17

SUBvs Brett Johns · Dec 17

KOvs Iuri Alcantara · Feb 18

latest

Michinori TanakaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Roland Delorme · Jun 14

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Sep 14

vs Rani Yahya · Sep 16

vs Ricardo Ramos · Feb 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe SotoMetricMichinori Tanaka

3.36

Strikes / min

1.97

5.37

Strikes absorbed / min

1.99

67%

Strike defense

50%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

2.40

70%

Takedown defense

43%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.01Δ 1.99 — meaningful gap-0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe SotoMichinori Tanaka

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Soto(8 fights)Michinori Tanaka(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.5|Blue -4.5

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -259.0|Blue +259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe SotoTargetMichinori Tanaka

By target zone

61% acc · 76%

Head

26% acc · 81%

67% acc · 6%

Body

86% acc · 11%

76% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

63% acc · 94%

Distance

27% acc · 82%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 6%

Ground

71% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Soto rounds

even

Michinori Tanaka rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:09Control

Round 2Michinori Tanaka edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:51Control

Round 3Joe Soto edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns1

Control0:14

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:06Control

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 111

Sig Strikes

57 / 190

60%

Sig Str %

30.7%

98 / 138

Total Strikes

68 / 202

1 / 3

TDs

3 / 6

33.3%

TD %

61%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

5:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michinori Tanaka	7 / 33	8 / 34	1 / 1	0
1	Joe Soto	11 / 16	12 / 17	0 / 1	1
2	Michinori Tanaka	21 / 46	28 / 53	1 / 2	0
2	Joe Soto	7 / 15	25 / 33	0 / 1	1
3	Michinori Tanaka	29 / 111	32 / 115	1 / 3	0
3	Joe Soto	53 / 80	61 / 88	1 / 1	2

Joe Soto

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8

Michinori Tanaka

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights5