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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Brett Johns won · SUB R1
Elo1364
Joe Soto
Elo1493

Joe SotovsBrett JohnsUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · Friday, December 1, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brett Johns won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:30

Style matchupJoe Soto: Submission grapplervsBrett Johns: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Brett Johns wins(76.3%)

Actual result: Brett Johns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brett Johns at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joe Soto has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Brett Johns has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Soto
Red Corner
VS
Brett Johns
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-165
(62%)
1364
Elo
1493
39
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
165.1 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Soto
oldest →
L
vs Michinori Tanaka · Jan 16
W
SUBvs Chris Beal · Jun 16
W
SUBvs Marco Beltran · Nov 16
W
vs Rani Yahya · Mar 17
L
KOvs Iuri Alcantara · Feb 18
latest
Brett JohnsW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Albert Morales · Jul 17
L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 18
L
vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 18
W
SUBvs Tony Gravely · Jan 20
W
vs Montel Jackson · Jul 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe SotoMetricBrett Johns
3.36
Strikes / min
2.86
5.37
Strikes absorbed / min
3.84
67%
Strike defense
53%
0.85
TDs / 15 min
4.92
70%
Takedown defense
58%
1.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.01Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap-0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1513 vs 1531Strikes39.5 vs 52.5Takedowns0.7 vs 7.0Sub Atts1.50 vs 0.50Form0.7 vs 1.0
Joe SotoBrett Johns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joe Soto(8 fights)Brett Johns(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -128.9|Blue +128.9
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff
Red +127.0|Blue -127.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe SotoTargetBrett Johns

By target zone

0
Head
1
11% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
Distance
1
11% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Joe Soto rounds
1
even
0
Brett Johns rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 0
Sig Strikes
1 / 9
—
Sig Str %
11%
0 / 0
Total Strikes
1 / 9
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Brett Johns1 / 91 / 90 / 01
1Joe Soto0 / 00 / 00 / 10

Joe Soto

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights8

Brett Johns

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7