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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Birchak won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1364

Elo1399

Joe SotovsAnthony BirchakUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · Saturday, June 6, 2015New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Birchak won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:37

Style matchupJoe Soto: Submission grapplervsAnthony Birchak: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Joe Soto wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Anthony Birchak wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Soto at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Birchak is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Joe Soto has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Joe Soto threatens submissions; Anthony Birchak has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Joe Soto has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Anthony Birchak has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Soto

Red Corner

Anthony Birchak

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1364

Elo

1399

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

165.1 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe SotoL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Beal · Jun 16

SUBvs Marco Beltran · Nov 16

vs Rani Yahya · Mar 17

SUBvs Brett Johns · Dec 17

KOvs Iuri Alcantara · Feb 18

latest

Anthony BirchakL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ian Entwistle · Dec 14

KOvs Thomas Almeida · Nov 15

vs Dileno Lopes · Jul 16

SUBvs Gustavo Lopez · Nov 20

KOvs Tony Gravely · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe SotoMetricAnthony Birchak

3.36

Strikes / min

3.93

5.37

Strikes absorbed / min

3.67

67%

Strike defense

56%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

0.48

70%

Takedown defense

61%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.01Δ 2.27 — meaningful gap+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe SotoAnthony Birchak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Soto(8 fights)Anthony Birchak(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -35.2|Blue +35.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe SotoTargetAnthony Birchak

By target zone

14% acc · 100%

Head

34% acc · 69%

Body

67% acc · 13%

0% acc

Leg

75% acc · 19%

By position

13% acc · 100%

Distance

25% acc · 31%

0% acc

Clinch

60% acc · 56%

Ground

50% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Soto rounds

even

Anthony Birchak rounds

Round 1Anthony Birchak edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 9

Sig Strikes

16 / 39

11%

Sig Str %

41%

1 / 9

Total Strikes

18 / 41

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Birchak	16 / 39	18 / 41	0 / 0	0
1	Joe Soto	1 / 9	1 / 9	0 / 0	0

Joe Soto

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8

Anthony Birchak

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6