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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joe Solecki won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1392

Joe SoleckivsMatt WimanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Saturday, December 7, 2019Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

Joe Solecki won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoe Solecki: WrestlervsMatt Wiman: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Matt Wiman wins(59.5%)

Actual result: Joe Solecki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Wiman at +325 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joe Solecki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matt Wiman has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Solecki

Red Corner

Matt Wiman

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+325

(24%)

1489

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe SoleckiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Da Silva · Jun 22

SUBvs Carl Deaton · Feb 23

KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 23

vs Grant Dawson · Jun 24

vs Nurullo Aliev · Jan 25

latest

Matt WimanL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Paul Sass · Sep 12

KOvs TJ Grant · Jan 13

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Nov 14

KOvs Luis Pena · Jun 19

KOvs Jordan Leavitt · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe SoleckiMetricMatt Wiman

1.97

Strikes / min

3.17

1.85

Strikes absorbed / min

3.57

50%

Strike defense

51%

2.06

TDs / 15 min

2.13

14%

Takedown defense

56%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe SoleckiMatt Wiman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Solecki(9 fights)Matt Wiman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +97.1|Blue -97.1

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +48.1|Blue -48.1

Grappler Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe SoleckiTargetMatt Wiman

By target zone

79% acc · 89%

Head

37% acc · 70%

80% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 10%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

88% acc · 13%

Distance

20% acc · 30%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

79% acc · 86%

Ground

100% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Solecki rounds

even

Matt Wiman rounds

Round 1Joe Solecki edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control4:31

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Joe Solecki edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control3:41

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Joe Solecki edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control4:17

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 70

Sig Strikes

10 / 22

83.3%

Sig Str %

55.3%

177 / 217

Total Strikes

20 / 33

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:29

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matt Wiman	3 / 4	5 / 6	0 / 0
1	Joe Solecki	33 / 41	84 / 98	1 / 1
2	Matt Wiman	3 / 12	6 / 16	0 / 0
2	Joe Solecki	14 / 20	49 / 61	2 / 2
3	Matt Wiman	4 / 6	9 / 11	0 / 0
3	Joe Solecki	9 / 9	44 / 58	1 / 2

Joe Solecki

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9

Matt Wiman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10