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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jared Gordon won · S-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1483

Joe SoleckivsJared GordonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Saturday, October 2, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jared Gordon won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoe Solecki: WrestlervsJared Gordon: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Joe Solecki wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Jared Gordon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Solecki at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joe Solecki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jared Gordon has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Solecki

Red Corner

Jared Gordon

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1489

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe SoleckiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Da Silva · Jun 22

SUBvs Carl Deaton · Feb 23

KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 23

vs Grant Dawson · Jun 24

vs Nurullo Aliev · Jan 25

latest

Jared GordonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24

KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25

SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe SoleckiMetricJared Gordon

1.97

Strikes / min

5.57

1.85

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

50%

Strike defense

55%

2.06

TDs / 15 min

1.91

14%

Takedown defense

60%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.12Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe SoleckiJared Gordon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Solecki(9 fights)Jared Gordon(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.9|Blue -6.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe SoleckiTargetJared Gordon

By target zone

50% acc · 82%

Head

53% acc · 63%

100% acc · 13%

Body

67% acc · 24%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

88% acc · 14%

By position

45% acc · 66%

Distance

49% acc · 65%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

100% acc · 24%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Solecki rounds

even

Jared Gordon rounds

Round 1Joe Solecki edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control3:58

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 2Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns3

Control2:05

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:38Control

Round 3Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 69

Sig Strikes

51 / 86

81.3%

Sig Str %

83%

70 / 102

Total Strikes

83 / 122

4 / 7

TDs

1 / 2

53.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:03

Ctrl Time

4:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Gordon	1 / 1	6 / 6	0 / 0
1	Joe Solecki	10 / 10	35 / 35	1 / 1
2	Jared Gordon	16 / 16	40 / 44	0 / 0
2	Joe Solecki	3 / 3	7 / 8	3 / 5
3	Jared Gordon	34 / 69	37 / 72	1 / 2
3	Joe Solecki	25 / 56	28 / 59	0 / 1

Joe Solecki

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9

Jared Gordon

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17