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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joe Solecki won · SUB R2
Elo1489
Elo1466

Joe SoleckivsCarl DeatonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Saturday, February 25, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joe Solecki won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:55

Model Prediction: Joe Solecki wins(81.9%)

Actual result: Joe Solecki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Solecki at -520 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joe Solecki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Joe Solecki threatens submissions; Carl Deaton has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Carl Deaton has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Carl Deaton has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Solecki
Red Corner
VS
Carl Deaton
Blue Corner
-520
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+410
(20%)
1489
Elo
1466
32
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe SoleckiL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jared Gordon · Oct 21
W
vs Alex Da Silva · Jun 22
L
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 23
L
vs Grant Dawson · Jun 24
L
vs Nurullo Aliev · Jan 25
latest
Carl Deaton
oldest →
L
vs Alexander Munoz · Jul 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe SoleckiMetricCarl Deaton
1.97
Strikes / min
1.53
1.85
Strikes absorbed / min
1.85
50%
Strike defense
61%
2.06
TDs / 15 min
0.00
14%
Takedown defense
50%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1552 vs 1500Strikes2.0 vs 1.5Takedowns2.2 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.40 vs 0.00Form0.5 vs 0.0
Joe SoleckiCarl Deaton

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Joe Solecki(9 fights)Carl Deaton(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +23.5|Blue -23.5
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.2|Blue +49.2
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe SoleckiTargetCarl Deaton

By target zone

1
17% acc · 50%
Head
1
10% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 50%
Leg
0

By position

1
17% acc · 50%
Distance
1
8% acc · 100%
1
50% acc · 50%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Joe Solecki rounds
0
even
0
Carl Deaton rounds
Round 1Joe Solecki edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control4:26
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Joe Solecki edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns1
Control4:25
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 8
Sig Strikes
1 / 12
25%
Sig Str %
8%
49 / 67
Total Strikes
13 / 29
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
75%
TD %
—
3
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
8:51
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Carl Deaton0 / 66 / 130 / 00
1Joe Solecki2 / 414 / 181 / 22
2Carl Deaton1 / 67 / 160 / 00
2Joe Solecki0 / 435 / 491 / 11

Joe Solecki

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights9

Carl Deaton

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2