Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joe Solecki won · M-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1426

Joe SoleckivsAlex Da SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Saturday, June 4, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joe Solecki won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Joe Solecki wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Joe Solecki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Solecki at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joe Solecki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joe Solecki threatens submissions; Alex Da Silva has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Alex Da Silva has 62pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Solecki

Red Corner

Alex Da Silva

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1489

Elo

1426

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe SoleckiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jared Gordon · Oct 21

SUBvs Carl Deaton · Feb 23

KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 23

vs Grant Dawson · Jun 24

vs Nurullo Aliev · Jan 25

latest

Alex Da Silva

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Yakovlev · Apr 19

vs Kazula Vargas · Aug 19

vs Brad Riddell · Sep 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe SoleckiMetricAlex Da Silva

1.97

Strikes / min

2.14

1.85

Strikes absorbed / min

2.52

50%

Strike defense

56%

2.06

TDs / 15 min

1.97

14%

Takedown defense

76%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe SoleckiAlex Da Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Solecki(9 fights)Alex Da Silva(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -371.0|Blue +371.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe SoleckiTargetAlex Da Silva

By target zone

40% acc · 97%

Head

34% acc · 57%

Body

92% acc · 31%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

67% acc · 11%

By position

39% acc · 91%

Distance

43% acc · 83%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

71% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Solecki rounds

even

Alex Da Silva rounds

Round 1Alex Da Silva edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:11

Knockdowns0

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:32Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Joe Solecki edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control4:40

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alex Da Silva edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:23Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 82

Sig Strikes

35 / 76

57%

Sig Str %

50.3%

91 / 144

Total Strikes

54 / 96

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:51

Ctrl Time

5:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Da Silva	6 / 8	17 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Joe Solecki	3 / 5	24 / 27	0 / 0	1
2	Alex Da Silva	1 / 3	7 / 10	0 / 0	0
2	Joe Solecki	3 / 4	31 / 34	1 / 2	2
3	Alex Da Silva	28 / 65	30 / 67	0 / 0	0
3	Joe Solecki	27 / 73	36 / 83	0 / 2	0

Joe Solecki

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9

Alex Da Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4