Middleweight

3 Rounds

Joe Riggs won · DQ R2

Elo1490

Joe RiggsvsRon StallingsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · Saturday, September 5, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joe Riggs won

DQ · Round 2 · 2:28

Style matchupJoe Riggs: WrestlervsRon Stallings: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Ron Stallings wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Joe Riggs wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ron Stallings at -235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joe Riggs enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Ron Stallings has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Riggs

Red Corner

Ron Stallings

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'2"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe RiggsL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ben Saunders · Dec 14

vs Patrick Cote · Apr 15

KOvs Chris Camozzi · Feb 16

latest

Ron Stallings

oldest →

KOvs Uriah Hall · Jan 15

vs Justin Jones · Apr 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe RiggsMetricRon Stallings

2.41

Strikes / min

3.22

1.69

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

57%

Strike defense

51%

2.45

TDs / 15 min

0.00

62%

Takedown defense

71%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe RiggsRon Stallings

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Riggs(4 fights)Ron Stallings(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe RiggsTargetRon Stallings

By target zone

56% acc · 89%

Head

62% acc · 75%

50% acc · 6%

Body

67% acc · 8%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

52% acc · 43%

Distance

61% acc · 71%

0% acc

Clinch

80% acc · 17%

67% acc · 57%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Riggs rounds

even

Ron Stallings rounds

Round 1Joe Riggs edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control1:42

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Joe Riggs edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control2:17

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 61

Sig Strikes

24 / 36

57.5%

Sig Str %

81%

47 / 74

Total Strikes

32 / 46

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:59

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ron Stallings	20 / 32	25 / 38	0 / 0
1	Joe Riggs	16 / 33	20 / 38	2 / 2
2	Ron Stallings	4 / 4	7 / 8	0 / 0
2	Joe Riggs	19 / 28	27 / 36	0 / 0

Joe Riggs

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Ron Stallings

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3