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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ben Saunders won · SUB R1

Elo1490

Elo1379

Joe RiggsvsBen SaundersUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · Saturday, December 13, 2014Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Ben Saunders won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:57

Style matchupJoe Riggs: WrestlervsBen Saunders: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ben Saunders wins(69.7%)

Actual result: Ben Saunders wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ben Saunders at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ben Saunders enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Ben Saunders threatens submissions; Joe Riggs has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Joe Riggs (53.5%).
Ben Saunders has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Riggs

Red Corner

Ben Saunders

Blue Corner

+230

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1490

Elo

1379

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

177.8 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Riggs

oldest →

vs Patrick Cote · Apr 15

vs Ron Stallings · Sep 15

KOvs Chris Camozzi · Feb 16

latest

Ben SaundersL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 18

SUBvs Sergio Moraes · Sep 18

KOvs Lyman Good · Nov 18

KOvs Takashi Sato · Apr 19

KOvs Matt Brown · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe RiggsMetricBen Saunders

2.41

Strikes / min

3.23

1.69

Strikes absorbed / min

3.58

57%

Strike defense

51%

2.45

TDs / 15 min

0.20

62%

Takedown defense

66%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe RiggsBen Saunders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Riggs(4 fights)Ben Saunders(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +111.7|Blue -111.7

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +48.1|Blue -48.1

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe RiggsTargetBen Saunders

By target zone

67% acc · 100%

Head

60% acc · 75%

Body

50% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

67% acc · 100%

Distance

60% acc · 75%

Clinch

50% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Riggs rounds

even

Ben Saunders rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:19

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 3

Sig Strikes

4 / 7

66%

Sig Str %

57%

2 / 3

Total Strikes

4 / 7

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ben Saunders	4 / 7	4 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Joe Riggs	2 / 3	2 / 3	1 / 1	0

Joe Riggs

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Ben Saunders

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14