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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Joe Pyfer won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1553
Joe Pyfer
Elo1478
Marc-Andre Barriault

Joe PyfervsMarc-Andre BarriaultUFC Prediction Result

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Saturday, June 29, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joe Pyfer won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:25

Style matchupJoe Pyfer: Well-roundedvsMarc-Andre Barriault: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Joe Pyfer wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Joe Pyfer wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Pyfer at -345 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joe Pyfer enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Pyfer
Red Corner
VS
Marc-Andre Barriault
Blue Corner
-345
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
1553
Elo
1478
29
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe PyferW3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Oct 23
L
vs Jack Hermansson · Feb 24
W
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Oct 25
W
KOvs Israel Adesanya · Mar 26
latest
Marc-Andre BarriaultL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Chris Curtis · Jan 24
L
KOvs Dustin Stoltzfus · Nov 24
W
KOvs Bruno Silva · May 25
L
vs Shara Magomedov · Jul 25
L
vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe PyferMetricMarc-Andre Barriault
3.52
Strikes / min
5.65
3.22
Strikes absorbed / min
5.94
52%
Strike defense
49%
1.45
TDs / 15 min
0.34
62%
Takedown defense
68%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.30evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1536 vs 1509Strikes3.7 vs 6.1Takedowns1.4 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.90 vs 0.10Form0.2 vs -0.0
Joe PyferMarc-Andre Barriault

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601488151515431570← oldermost recent →
Joe Pyfer(8 fights)Marc-Andre Barriault(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +75.4|Blue -75.4
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe PyferTargetMarc-Andre Barriault

By target zone

4
80% acc · 50%
Head
0
0% acc
1
50% acc · 13%
Body
0
0% acc
3
100% acc · 38%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

7
78% acc · 88%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 13%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Joe Pyfer rounds
0
even
0
Marc-Andre Barriault rounds
Round 1Joe Pyfer edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
8 / 10
Sig Strikes
0 / 5
80%
Sig Str %
0%
8 / 10
Total Strikes
0 / 5
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Marc-Andre Barriault0 / 50 / 50 / 00
1Joe Pyfer8 / 108 / 100 / 00

Joe Pyfer

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8

Marc-Andre Barriault

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights17