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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Joe Pyfer won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1553
Joe Pyfer
Elo1434

Joe PyfervsAlen AmedovskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Saturday, September 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joe Pyfer won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:55

Model Prediction: Joe Pyfer wins(88.5%)

Actual result: Joe Pyfer wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Pyfer at -520 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joe Pyfer enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Alen Amedovski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Joe Pyfer is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Alen Amedovski has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Joe Pyfer has 62pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Pyfer
Red Corner
VS
Alen Amedovski
Blue Corner
-520
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+410
(20%)
1553
Elo
1434
29
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe PyferW4 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jack Hermansson · Feb 24
W
KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 24
W
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Oct 25
W
KOvs Israel Adesanya · Mar 26
latest
Alen AmedovskiL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Krzysztof Jotko · Apr 19
L
KOvs John Phillips · Sep 19
L
SUBvs Joseph Holmes · May 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe PyferMetricAlen Amedovski
3.52
Strikes / min
0.99
3.22
Strikes absorbed / min
3.85
52%
Strike defense
46%
1.45
TDs / 15 min
0.00
62%
Takedown defense
0%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.30Δ 3.16 — meaningful gap-2.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1445Strikes3.7 vs 1.0Takedowns1.4 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.90 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs -1.0
Joe PyferAlen Amedovski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801503152515481570← oldermost recent →
Joe Pyfer(8 fights)Alen Amedovski(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +119.6|Blue -119.6
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +49.9|Blue -49.9
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe PyferTargetAlen Amedovski

By target zone

12
29% acc · 86%
Head
4
21% acc · 36%
1
50% acc · 7%
Body
2
50% acc · 18%
1
100% acc · 7%
Leg
5
71% acc · 45%

By position

13
30% acc · 93%
Distance
11
37% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 7%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Joe Pyfer rounds
0
even
0
Alen Amedovski rounds
Round 1Joe Pyfer edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
14 / 45
Sig Strikes
11 / 30
31%
Sig Str %
36%
14 / 45
Total Strikes
11 / 30
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alen Amedovski11 / 3011 / 300 / 00
1Joe Pyfer14 / 4514 / 450 / 00

Joe Pyfer

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8

Alen Amedovski

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4