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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Magomed Mustafaev won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1360

Elo1492

Joe ProctorvsMagomed MustafaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · Saturday, December 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Magomed Mustafaev won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:54

Style matchupJoe Proctor: Well-roundedvsMagomed Mustafaev: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Joe Proctor wins(51.3%)

Actual result: Magomed Mustafaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Proctor at +300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Magomed Mustafaev is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Joe Proctor has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Joe Proctor has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Joe Proctor has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Proctor

Red Corner

Magomed Mustafaev

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-360

(78%)

1360

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Proctor

oldest →

vs Cristiano Marcello · Feb 14

KOvs Justin Salas · Jul 14

SUBvs Yancy Medeiros · Dec 14

SUBvs Justin Edwards · Jun 15

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Apr 17

latest

Magomed Mustafaev

oldest →

KOvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 15

SUBvs Kevin Lee · Nov 16

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Apr 19

vs Brad Riddell · Feb 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe ProctorMetricMagomed Mustafaev

3.39

Strikes / min

2.59

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

2.68

59%

Strike defense

41%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.31

70%

Takedown defense

23%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe ProctorMagomed Mustafaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Proctor(8 fights)Magomed Mustafaev(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -132.1|Blue +132.1

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe ProctorTargetMagomed Mustafaev

By target zone

43% acc · 33%

Head

59% acc · 72%

100% acc · 22%

Body

100% acc · 22%

100% acc · 44%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

67% acc · 89%

Distance

50% acc · 50%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 22%

Ground

100% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Proctor rounds

even

Magomed Mustafaev rounds

Round 1Magomed Mustafaev edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 13

Sig Strikes

18 / 27

69%

Sig Str %

66%

9 / 13

Total Strikes

22 / 31

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Magomed Mustafaev	18 / 27	22 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Joe Proctor	9 / 13	9 / 13	0 / 0	0

Joe Proctor

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Magomed Mustafaev

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5