Lightweight

3 Rounds

Stevie Ray won · M-DEC R3

Elo1492

Joe LauzonvsStevie RayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Saturday, April 22, 2017Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Stevie Ray won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsStevie Ray: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Stevie Ray wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Stevie Ray wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stevie Ray at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Stevie Ray (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joe Lauzon

Red Corner

Stevie Ray

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1492

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Lauzon

oldest →

vs Jim Miller · Aug 16

vs Marcin Held · Jan 17

KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17

KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19

latest

Stevie Ray

oldest →

KOvs Paul Felder · Jul 17

vs Kajan Johnson · Mar 18

vs Jessin Ayari · Oct 18

KOvs Leonardo Santos · Jun 19

vs Michael Johnson · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe LauzonMetricStevie Ray

2.84

Strikes / min

3.73

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

2.93

54%

Strike defense

54%

2.39

TDs / 15 min

0.75

54%

Takedown defense

55%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.55Δ 3.35 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe LauzonStevie Ray

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Stevie Ray(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -57.0|Blue +57.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe LauzonTargetStevie Ray

By target zone

58% acc · 91%

Head

53% acc · 86%

100% acc · 9%

Body

88% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

47% acc · 43%

Distance

48% acc · 61%

25% acc · 2%

Clinch

62% acc · 17%

86% acc · 54%

Ground

89% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Lauzon rounds

even

Stevie Ray rounds

Round 1Joe Lauzon edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns3

Control4:27

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Stevie Ray edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:56

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Stevie Ray edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:49

77Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 76

Sig Strikes

109 / 196

62.7%

Sig Str %

61%

65 / 97

Total Strikes

139 / 237

5 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:12

Ctrl Time

0:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Stevie Ray	4 / 5	9 / 11	0 / 0	0
1	Joe Lauzon	19 / 21	30 / 33	3 / 3	1
2	Stevie Ray	28 / 64	36 / 74	0 / 0	0
2	Joe Lauzon	12 / 25	16 / 30	1 / 2	0
3	Stevie Ray	77 / 127	94 / 152	0 / 0	1
3	Joe Lauzon	15 / 30	19 / 34	1 / 2	0

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights20

Stevie Ray

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11