Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Lightweight
3 Rounds
Michael Johnson won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
Elo1502
Michael Johnson

Joe LauzonvsMichael JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 17, 2013Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Michael Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsMichael Johnson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Michael Johnson wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Johnson at +225 American odds

+$225 profit

$325 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joe Lauzon threatens submissions; Michael Johnson has lost 31% of fights by sub.
  • Michael Johnson has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joe Lauzon
Red Corner
VS
Michael Johnson
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+225
(31%)
1492
Elo
1502
42
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Lauzon
oldest →
W
vs Marcin Held · Jan 17
L
vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17
L
KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17
L
KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18
W
KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19
latest
Michael Johnson
oldest →
L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23
W
vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24
W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24
W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe LauzonMetricMichael Johnson
2.84
Strikes / min
4.27
5.39
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
54%
Strike defense
58%
2.39
TDs / 15 min
0.57
54%
Takedown defense
81%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.55Δ 3.04 — meaningful gap+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1520 vs 1504Strikes15.1 vs 29.9Takedowns1.3 vs 0.3Sub Atts1.71 vs 0.00Form-0.1 vs -0.1
Joe LauzonMichael Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Michael Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -10.6|Blue +10.6
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe LauzonTargetMichael Johnson

By target zone

24
22% acc · 96%
Head
81
39% acc · 70%
1
100% acc · 4%
Body
23
66% acc · 20%
0
Leg
12
100% acc · 10%

By position

23
21% acc · 92%
Distance
103
44% acc · 89%
2
100% acc · 8%
Clinch
11
61% acc · 9%
0
Ground
2
40% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Joe Lauzon rounds
0
even
3
Michael Johnson rounds
Round 1Michael Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
42Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
2Knockdowns
Round 2Michael Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:28
27Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:40Control
Round 3Michael Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
47Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:07Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
25 / 109
Sig Strikes
116 / 255
22.3%
Sig Str %
45%
28 / 112
Total Strikes
119 / 259
0 / 4
TDs
2 / 2
0%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:28
Ctrl Time
1:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Michael Johnson42 / 9442 / 940 / 00
1Joe Lauzon7 / 267 / 260 / 10
2Michael Johnson27 / 5929 / 621 / 10
2Joe Lauzon11 / 4614 / 490 / 10
3Michael Johnson47 / 10248 / 1031 / 10
3Joe Lauzon7 / 377 / 370 / 20

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights20

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights32