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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joe Lauzon won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1492

Elo1529

Joe LauzonvsMichael ChiesaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi · Friday, September 5, 2014Ledyard, Connecticut, USA

Official fight result

Joe Lauzon won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:14

Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsMichael Chiesa: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Joe Lauzon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Chiesa at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Joe Lauzon threatens submissions; Michael Chiesa has lost 71% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Michael Chiesa has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Lauzon

Red Corner

Michael Chiesa

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1492

Elo

1529

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'1"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Lauzon

oldest →

vs Marcin Held · Jan 17

vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17

KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17

KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19

latest

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe LauzonMetricMichael Chiesa

2.84

Strikes / min

2.02

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

1.73

54%

Strike defense

57%

2.39

TDs / 15 min

3.11

54%

Takedown defense

65%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.55Δ 2.84 — meaningful gap+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe LauzonMichael Chiesa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Michael Chiesa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -37.0|Blue +37.0

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +161.0|Blue -161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe LauzonTargetMichael Chiesa

By target zone

46% acc · 81%

Head

35% acc · 47%

100% acc · 19%

Body

91% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

37% acc · 48%

Distance

44% acc · 63%

100% acc · 19%

Clinch

79% acc · 37%

70% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Lauzon rounds

even

Michael Chiesa rounds

Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:31

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:59Control

Round 2Joe Lauzon edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:12

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 41

Sig Strikes

30 / 57

51%

Sig Str %

52%

42 / 66

Total Strikes

42 / 70

2 / 7

TDs

1 / 4

35%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:43

Ctrl Time

1:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Chiesa	19 / 35	27 / 43	1 / 3
1	Joe Lauzon	9 / 21	25 / 41	1 / 5
2	Michael Chiesa	11 / 22	15 / 27	0 / 1
2	Joe Lauzon	12 / 20	17 / 25	1 / 2

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights20

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22