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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joe Lauzon won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1491

Joe LauzonvsMarcin HeldUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · Sunday, January 15, 2017Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Joe Lauzon won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsMarcin Held: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Marcin Held wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Joe Lauzon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Held at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joe Lauzon has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Lauzon

Red Corner

Marcin Held

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1492

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Lauzon

oldest →

vs Jim Miller · Aug 16

vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17

KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17

KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19

latest

Marcin Held

oldest →

vs Diego Sanchez · Nov 16

KOvs Damir Hadzovic · May 17

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Oct 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe LauzonMetricMarcin Held

2.84

Strikes / min

1.41

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

2.02

54%

Strike defense

47%

2.39

TDs / 15 min

2.46

54%

Takedown defense

37%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.55Δ 1.94 — meaningful gap-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe LauzonMarcin Held

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Marcin Held(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe LauzonTargetMarcin Held

By target zone

29% acc · 85%

Head

29% acc · 87%

75% acc · 15%

Body

40% acc · 9%

Leg

33% acc · 4%

By position

17% acc · 40%

Distance

30% acc · 87%

80% acc · 60%

Clinch

33% acc · 13%

0% acc

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Lauzon rounds

even

Marcin Held rounds

Round 1Joe Lauzon edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:32

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:32Control

Round 2Marcin Held edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control0:35

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:39Control

Round 3Marcin Held edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:30

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:01Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 62

Sig Strikes

23 / 78

22%

Sig Str %

26%

44 / 86

Total Strikes

32 / 90

1 / 2

TDs

5 / 5

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:37

Ctrl Time

8:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcin Held	6 / 27	9 / 30	1 / 1	0
1	Joe Lauzon	15 / 33	20 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Marcin Held	2 / 10	8 / 19	2 / 2	0
2	Joe Lauzon	0 / 6	10 / 16	1 / 1	1
3	Marcin Held	15 / 41	15 / 41	2 / 2	0
3	Joe Lauzon	5 / 23	14 / 32	0 / 1	0

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights20

Marcin Held

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4