Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joe Lauzon won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
Elo1353
Mac Danzig

Joe LauzonvsMac DanzigUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · Saturday, December 14, 2013Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Joe Lauzon won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mac Danzig wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Joe Lauzon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mac Danzig at +165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Joe Lauzon
Red Corner
VS
Mac Danzig
Blue Corner
-175
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
1492
Elo
1353
42
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Lauzon
oldest →
W
vs Marcin Held · Jan 17
L
vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17
L
KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17
L
KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18
W
KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19
latest
Mac DanzigL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Joe Stevenson · Dec 10
L
vs Matt Wiman · Oct 11
W
vs Efrain Escudero · Apr 12
L
vs Takanori Gomi · Nov 12
L
KOvs Melvin Guillard · Jul 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe LauzonMetricMac Danzig
2.84
Strikes / min
3.39
5.39
Strikes absorbed / min
3.44
54%
Strike defense
57%
2.39
TDs / 15 min
1.20
54%
Takedown defense
46%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.55Δ 2.50 — meaningful gap-0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1466Strikes15.7 vs 36.7Takedowns1.2 vs 1.0Sub Atts1.60 vs 0.50Form-0.5 vs -0.6
Joe LauzonMac Danzig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Mac Danzig(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.2|Blue -139.2
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe LauzonTargetMac Danzig

By target zone

33
52% acc · 77%
Head
34
47% acc · 65%
10
91% acc · 23%
Body
12
86% acc · 23%
0
Leg
6
100% acc · 12%

By position

1
3% acc · 2%
Distance
40
55% acc · 77%
9
82% acc · 21%
Clinch
11
65% acc · 21%
33
97% acc · 77%
Ground
1
50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Joe Lauzon rounds
1
even
1
Mac Danzig rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns2
Control1:47
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:58Control
Round 2Mac Danzig edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control2:19
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Round 3Joe Lauzon edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns1
Control2:50
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:25Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
43 / 75
Sig Strikes
52 / 92
51.3%
Sig Str %
54.7%
80 / 113
Total Strikes
91 / 137
3 / 3
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
2
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
6:56
Ctrl Time
2:33

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mac Danzig8 / 1619 / 310 / 10
1Joe Lauzon4 / 148 / 192 / 22
2Mac Danzig22 / 3831 / 490 / 00
2Joe Lauzon15 / 2930 / 440 / 00
3Mac Danzig22 / 3841 / 570 / 00
3Joe Lauzon24 / 3242 / 501 / 10

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights20

Mac Danzig

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights7