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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joe Lauzon won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1492
Elo1494
Jonathan Pearce

Joe LauzonvsJonathan PearceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · Friday, October 18, 2019Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Joe Lauzon won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:33

Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsJonathan Pearce: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Pearce wins(63.8%)

Actual result: Joe Lauzon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Pearce at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joe Lauzon enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Jonathan Pearce enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Joe Lauzon threatens submissions; Jonathan Pearce has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Pearce (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Joe Lauzon
Red Corner
VS
Jonathan Pearce
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-200
(67%)
1492
Elo
1494
42
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'10"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe LauzonL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jim Miller · Aug 16
W
vs Marcin Held · Jan 17
L
vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17
L
KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17
L
KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18
latest
Jonathan PearceL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Jul 22
W
vs Darren Elkins · Dec 22
L
SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Nov 23
L
vs David Onama · Apr 24
L
SUBvs Pat Sabatini · Oct 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe LauzonMetricJonathan Pearce
2.84
Strikes / min
5.12
5.39
Strikes absorbed / min
3.32
54%
Strike defense
54%
2.39
TDs / 15 min
5.02
54%
Takedown defense
55%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.55Δ 4.35 — meaningful gap+1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1480 vs 1500Strikes2.8 vs 11.2Takedowns2.4 vs 4.5Sub Atts2.00 vs 0.00Form-0.8 vs 0.0
Joe LauzonJonathan Pearce

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Jonathan Pearce(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -2.0|Blue +2.0
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red -48.8|Blue +48.8
Grappler Score
Red -49.4|Blue +49.4
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe LauzonTargetJonathan Pearce

By target zone

24
69% acc · 96%
Head
4
29% acc · 50%
1
100% acc · 4%
Body
2
67% acc · 25%
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 25%

By position

9
47% acc · 36%
Distance
8
44% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
0
0% acc
15
94% acc · 60%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Joe Lauzon rounds
0
even
0
Jonathan Pearce rounds
Round 1Joe Lauzon edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control0:41
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
25 / 36
Sig Strikes
8 / 19
69%
Sig Str %
42%
28 / 39
Total Strikes
8 / 19
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:41
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jonathan Pearce8 / 198 / 190 / 00
1Joe Lauzon25 / 3628 / 391 / 20

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights20

Jonathan Pearce

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9