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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jim Miller won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1516

Joe LauzonvsJim MillerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · Saturday, August 27, 2016Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsJim Miller: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(67.1%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joe Lauzon

Red Corner

Jim Miller

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1492

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Lauzon

oldest →

vs Marcin Held · Jan 17

vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17

KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17

KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19

latest

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe LauzonMetricJim Miller

2.84

Strikes / min

2.92

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

3.43

54%

Strike defense

56%

2.39

TDs / 15 min

1.49

54%

Takedown defense

47%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.55Δ 2.04 — meaningful gap-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe LauzonJim Miller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Jim Miller(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.3|Blue +24.3

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe LauzonTargetJim Miller

By target zone

37% acc · 85%

Head

40% acc · 65%

70% acc · 13%

Body

76% acc · 31%

33% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

32% acc · 65%

Distance

46% acc · 75%

70% acc · 13%

Clinch

52% acc · 20%

80% acc · 22%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Lauzon rounds

even

Jim Miller rounds

Round 1Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:33

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Joe Lauzon edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control1:43

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control2:55

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 136

Sig Strikes

80 / 166

39%

Sig Str %

48%

92 / 177

Total Strikes

97 / 185

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 3

83.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:11

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jim Miller	29 / 60	33 / 66	0 / 1	0
1	Joe Lauzon	14 / 41	26 / 55	1 / 2	0
2	Jim Miller	26 / 56	35 / 65	0 / 0	0
2	Joe Lauzon	25 / 59	42 / 76	1 / 1	0
3	Jim Miller	25 / 50	29 / 54	0 / 2	0
3	Joe Lauzon	15 / 36	24 / 46	1 / 1	1

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights20

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40