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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joe Lauzon won · SUB R3

Elo1492

Elo1354

Joe LauzonvsJamie VarnerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · Saturday, August 4, 2012Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Joe Lauzon won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:44

Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsJamie Varner: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jamie Varner wins(72.6%)

Actual result: Joe Lauzon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jamie Varner at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jamie Varner enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Joe Lauzon threatens submissions; Jamie Varner has lost 40% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Lauzon

Red Corner

Jamie Varner

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1492

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Lauzon

oldest →

vs Marcin Held · Jan 17

vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17

KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17

KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19

latest

Jamie VarnerL4 streak

oldest →

vs Melvin Guillard · Dec 12

vs Gleison Tibau · Aug 13

KOvs Abel Trujillo · Feb 14

KOvs James Krause · May 14

SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe LauzonMetricJamie Varner

2.84

Strikes / min

2.92

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

54%

Strike defense

58%

2.39

TDs / 15 min

3.49

54%

Takedown defense

66%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.55Δ 2.92 — meaningful gap+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe LauzonJamie Varner

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Jamie Varner(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.9|Blue -137.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe LauzonTargetJamie Varner

By target zone

37% acc · 95%

Head

38% acc · 65%

50% acc · 2%

Body

84% acc · 32%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

60% acc · 4%

By position

32% acc · 80%

Distance

45% acc · 95%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

67% acc · 2%

100% acc · 18%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Lauzon rounds

even

Jamie Varner rounds

Round 1Jamie Varner edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Jamie Varner edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control2:01

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Jamie Varner edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:08

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:51Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 118

Sig Strikes

82 / 177

37.7%

Sig Str %

47.3%

55 / 130

Total Strikes

84 / 181

2 / 5

TDs

2 / 4

25%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:09

Ctrl Time

1:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jamie Varner	35 / 81	36 / 82	0 / 1	0
1	Joe Lauzon	17 / 49	17 / 49	0 / 0	0
2	Jamie Varner	30 / 64	31 / 67	0 / 1	1
2	Joe Lauzon	18 / 48	26 / 57	2 / 4	0
3	Jamie Varner	17 / 32	17 / 32	2 / 2	0
3	Joe Lauzon	9 / 21	12 / 24	0 / 1	1

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights20

Jamie Varner

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7