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FIGHTDETECTIVE
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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joe Lauzon won · SUB R1
Elo1492
Elo1351

Joe LauzonvsGabe RuedigerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · Saturday, August 28, 2010Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Joe Lauzon won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:01

Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsGabe Ruediger: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Joe Lauzon wins(77.2%)

Actual result: Joe Lauzon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Lauzon at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joe Lauzon threatens submissions; Gabe Ruediger has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Joe Lauzon has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Joe Lauzon has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Lauzon
Red Corner
VS
Gabe Ruediger
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+290
(26%)
1492
Elo
1351
42
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
178 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Lauzon
oldest →
W
vs Marcin Held · Jan 17
L
vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17
L
KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17
L
KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18
W
KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19
latest
Gabe Ruediger
oldest →
L
KOvs Paul Taylor · Feb 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe LauzonMetricGabe Ruediger
2.84
Strikes / min
1.70
5.39
Strikes absorbed / min
5.16
54%
Strike defense
41%
2.39
TDs / 15 min
2.04
54%
Takedown defense
28%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.55evenly matched on net striking-3.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes11.9 vs 7.0Takedowns2.0 vs 2.0Sub Atts2.43 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Joe LauzonGabe Ruediger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Gabe Ruediger(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +141.0|Blue -141.0
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe LauzonTargetGabe Ruediger

By target zone

19
68% acc · 100%
Head
1
14% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

3
60% acc · 16%
Distance
1
13% acc · 100%
1
50% acc · 5%
Clinch
0
15
71% acc · 79%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Joe Lauzon rounds
0
even
0
Gabe Ruediger rounds
Round 1Joe Lauzon edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns2
Control1:33
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
19 / 28
Sig Strikes
1 / 8
67%
Sig Str %
12%
19 / 29
Total Strikes
1 / 8
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
66%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:33
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gabe Ruediger1 / 81 / 80 / 00
1Joe Lauzon19 / 2819 / 292 / 31

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights20

Gabe Ruediger

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach—
Fights2