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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Evan Dunham won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1385

Joe LauzonvsEvan DunhamUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · Friday, December 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Evan Dunham won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsEvan Dunham: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Evan Dunham wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Evan Dunham wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Evan Dunham at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Evan Dunham has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joe Lauzon

Red Corner

Evan Dunham

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1492

Elo

1385

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Lauzon

oldest →

vs Marcin Held · Jan 17

vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17

KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17

KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19

latest

Evan DunhamL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ross Pearson · Jul 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18

KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18

SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe LauzonMetricEvan Dunham

2.84

Strikes / min

5.33

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

3.54

54%

Strike defense

61%

2.39

TDs / 15 min

1.82

54%

Takedown defense

79%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.55Δ 4.34 — meaningful gap+1.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe LauzonEvan Dunham

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +107.0|Blue -107.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe LauzonTargetEvan Dunham

By target zone

35% acc · 88%

Head

38% acc · 76%

50% acc · 7%

Body

72% acc · 17%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

33% acc · 79%

Distance

41% acc · 76%

69% acc · 21%

Clinch

58% acc · 24%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Lauzon rounds

even

Evan Dunham rounds

Round 1Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:14

39Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:37Control

Round 3Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

52Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 113

Sig Strikes

127 / 291

38%

Sig Str %

43.3%

44 / 115

Total Strikes

147 / 318

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

1:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Evan Dunham	39 / 94	40 / 95	1 / 1
1	Joe Lauzon	19 / 55	21 / 57	0 / 1
2	Evan Dunham	36 / 80	54 / 105	0 / 2
2	Joe Lauzon	13 / 27	13 / 27	0 / 1
3	Evan Dunham	52 / 117	53 / 118	0 / 0
3	Joe Lauzon	10 / 31	10 / 31	0 / 1

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights20

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17