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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joe Lauzon won · SUB R1
Elo1492
Elo1490

Joe LauzonvsCurt WarburtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · Sunday, June 26, 2011Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Joe Lauzon won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:58

Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsCurt Warburton: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Curt Warburton wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Joe Lauzon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Curt Warburton at +260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joe Lauzon threatens submissions; Curt Warburton has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Joe Lauzon has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Curt Warburton has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Lauzon
Red Corner
VS
Curt Warburton
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
1492
Elo
1490
42
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Lauzon
oldest →
W
vs Marcin Held · Jan 17
L
vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17
L
KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17
L
KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18
W
KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19
latest
Curt Warburton
oldest →
L
vs Spencer Fisher · Oct 10
W
vs Maciej Jewtuszko · Feb 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe LauzonMetricCurt Warburton
2.84
Strikes / min
2.13
5.39
Strikes absorbed / min
3.44
54%
Strike defense
43%
2.39
TDs / 15 min
2.35
54%
Takedown defense
83%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.55Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes13.1 vs 31.5Takedowns1.8 vs 2.5Sub Atts2.00 vs 1.00Form-0.1 vs 0.2
Joe LauzonCurt Warburton

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Curt Warburton(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe LauzonTargetCurt Warburton

By target zone

11
34% acc · 92%
Head
4
18% acc · 80%
1
100% acc · 8%
Body
1
100% acc · 20%
0
Leg
0

By position

5
24% acc · 42%
Distance
5
22% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
7
58% acc · 58%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Joe Lauzon rounds
0
even
0
Curt Warburton rounds
Round 1Joe Lauzon edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:27
Knockdowns1
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
12 / 33
Sig Strikes
5 / 23
36%
Sig Str %
21%
12 / 33
Total Strikes
5 / 23
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:27
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Curt Warburton5 / 235 / 230 / 00
1Joe Lauzon12 / 3312 / 330 / 01

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights20

Curt Warburton

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3