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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Clay Guida won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1492
Elo1490
Clay Guida

Joe LauzonvsClay GuidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Saturday, November 11, 2017Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Clay Guida won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:07

Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsClay Guida: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(68.9%)

Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Guida at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Joe Lauzon threatens submissions; Clay Guida has lost 43% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Lauzon
Red Corner
VS
Clay Guida
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
1492
Elo
1490
42
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'7"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Lauzon
oldest →
L
vs Jim Miller · Aug 16
W
vs Marcin Held · Jan 17
L
vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17
L
KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18
W
KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19
latest
Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22
W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22
L
vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23
L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23
L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe LauzonMetricClay Guida
2.84
Strikes / min
2.63
5.39
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
54%
Strike defense
61%
2.39
TDs / 15 min
3.10
54%
Takedown defense
66%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.55Δ 2.18 — meaningful gap-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1517 vs 1532Strikes22.1 vs 29.1Takedowns1.4 vs 2.6Sub Atts1.21 vs 0.58Form-0.2 vs 0.3
Joe LauzonClay Guida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Clay Guida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +64.0|Blue -64.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe LauzonTargetClay Guida

By target zone

1
14% acc · 100%
Head
20
56% acc · 83%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 4%
0
Leg
3
100% acc · 13%

By position

1
14% acc · 100%
Distance
6
60% acc · 25%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
18
60% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Joe Lauzon rounds
0
even
1
Clay Guida rounds
Round 1Clay Guida edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:33Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
1 / 7
Sig Strikes
24 / 40
14%
Sig Str %
60%
1 / 7
Total Strikes
31 / 48
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:33

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Clay Guida24 / 4031 / 480 / 00
1Joe Lauzon1 / 71 / 70 / 00

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights20

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights27