Lightweight

3 Rounds

Chris Gruetzemacher won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1492

Elo1494

Joe LauzonvsChris GruetzemacherUFC Prediction Result

UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · Saturday, April 7, 2018Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Chris Gruetzemacher won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsChris Gruetzemacher: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Joe Lauzon wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Chris Gruetzemacher wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Lauzon at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joe Lauzon threatens submissions; Chris Gruetzemacher has lost 75% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Lauzon

Red Corner

Chris Gruetzemacher

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1492

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Lauzon

oldest →

vs Jim Miller · Aug 16

vs Marcin Held · Jan 17

vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17

KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19

latest

Chris Gruetzemacher

oldest →

SUBvs Chas Skelly · Feb 17

SUBvs Davi Ramos · Dec 17

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 20

vs Rafa Garcia · Jul 21

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Dec 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe LauzonMetricChris Gruetzemacher

2.84

Strikes / min

6.18

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

4.96

54%

Strike defense

52%

2.39

TDs / 15 min

0.21

54%

Takedown defense

65%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.55Δ 3.77 — meaningful gap+1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe LauzonChris Gruetzemacher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Chris Gruetzemacher(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -2.5|Blue +2.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe LauzonTargetChris Gruetzemacher

By target zone

32% acc · 83%

Head

53% acc · 56%

70% acc · 15%

Body

90% acc · 35%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

31% acc · 73%

Distance

58% acc · 53%

50% acc · 23%

Clinch

78% acc · 40%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

69% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Lauzon rounds

even

Chris Gruetzemacher rounds

Round 1Chris Gruetzemacher edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

53Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:31Control

Round 2Chris Gruetzemacher edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

75Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 137

Sig Strikes

128 / 196

32.5%

Sig Str %

64.5%

49 / 138

Total Strikes

135 / 203

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Gruetzemacher	53 / 89	56 / 92	0 / 0
1	Joe Lauzon	35 / 84	35 / 84	0 / 1
2	Chris Gruetzemacher	75 / 107	79 / 111	0 / 0
2	Joe Lauzon	13 / 53	14 / 54	0 / 1

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights20

Chris Gruetzemacher

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7