Lightweight

3 Rounds

Al Iaquinta won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1492

Elo1411

Joe LauzonvsAl IaquintaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · Saturday, January 31, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Al Iaquinta won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:34

Style matchupJoe Lauzon: WrestlervsAl Iaquinta: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Al Iaquinta wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Al Iaquinta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Al Iaquinta at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Al Iaquinta enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joe Lauzon threatens submissions; Al Iaquinta has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Al Iaquinta has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Lauzon

Red Corner

Al Iaquinta

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1492

Elo

1411

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Lauzon

oldest →

vs Marcin Held · Jan 17

vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17

KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17

KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19

latest

Al IaquintaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18

vs Kevin Lee · Dec 18

vs Donald Cerrone · May 19

vs Dan Hooker · Oct 19

KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe LauzonMetricAl Iaquinta

2.84

Strikes / min

4.06

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

54%

Strike defense

61%

2.39

TDs / 15 min

0.63

54%

Takedown defense

74%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.55Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe LauzonAl Iaquinta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Lauzon(10 fights)Al Iaquinta(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +80.8|Blue -80.8

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe LauzonTargetAl Iaquinta

By target zone

37% acc · 97%

Head

33% acc · 75%

0% acc

Body

64% acc · 15%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

75% acc · 10%

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

36% acc · 86%

0% acc

Clinch

71% acc · 8%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Lauzon rounds

even

Al Iaquinta rounds

Round 1Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:08

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 86

Sig Strikes

59 / 154

36%

Sig Str %

38.5%

32 / 86

Total Strikes

63 / 158

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Al Iaquinta	21 / 81	22 / 82	1 / 3
1	Joe Lauzon	21 / 52	21 / 52	0 / 0
2	Al Iaquinta	38 / 73	41 / 76	0 / 0
2	Joe Lauzon	11 / 34	11 / 34	0 / 1

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights20

Al Iaquinta

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15