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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Gerald Meerschaert won · Submission R1
Elo1359
Joe Gigliotti
Elo1457
Gerald Meerschaert

Joe GigliottivsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · Friday, December 9, 2016Albany, New York, USA

Official fight result

Gerald Meerschaert won

Submission · Round 1 · 4:12

Model Prediction: Joe Gigliotti wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Gerald Meerschaert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Gigliotti at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Gerald Meerschaert threatens submissions; Joe Gigliotti has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).
  • Gerald Meerschaert has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Gigliotti
Red Corner
VS
Gerald Meerschaert
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-200
(67%)
1359
Elo
1457
23
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'1"
175.26 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Gigliotti
oldest →
L
DECvs Trevor Smith · Aug 16
latest
Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24
L
vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25
L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25
L
SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25
L
DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe GigliottiMetricGerald Meerschaert
—
Strikes / min
2.95
—
Strikes absorbed / min
3.44
—
Strike defense
53%
—
TDs / 15 min
1.70
—
Takedown defense
40%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1482 vs 1500Strikes15.0 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts1.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Joe GigliottiGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14401460148015001520← oldermost recent →
Joe Gigliotti(2 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -98.0|Blue +98.0
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Joe Gigliotti

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights1

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights25