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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Bryan Barberena won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1490

Elo1491

Joe EllenbergervsBryan BarberenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · Saturday, December 13, 2014Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Bryan Barberena won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:24

Style matchupJoe Ellenberger: WrestlervsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Joe Ellenberger wins(88.0%)

Actual result: Bryan Barberena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Ellenberger at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Bryan Barberena has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joe Ellenberger

Red Corner

Bryan Barberena

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1490

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Ellenberger

oldest →

vs James Moontasri · Jun 14

latest

Bryan BarberenaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe EllenbergerMetricBryan Barberena

1.62

Strikes / min

5.35

3.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

48%

Strike defense

44%

3.17

TDs / 15 min

0.13

Takedown defense

50%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.83Δ 2.59 — meaningful gap+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe EllenbergerBryan Barberena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Ellenberger(2 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe EllenbergerTargetBryan Barberena

By target zone

27% acc · 54%

Head

47% acc · 79%

89% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

67% acc · 10%

By position

33% acc · 50%

Distance

44% acc · 51%

48% acc · 42%

Clinch

45% acc · 16%

67% acc · 8%

Ground

75% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Ellenberger rounds

even

Bryan Barberena rounds

Round 1Joe Ellenberger edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control1:20

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:14

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:45

Knockdowns0

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:51Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 60

Sig Strikes

63 / 122

40.3%

Sig Str %

49%

35 / 71

Total Strikes

106 / 172

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

55.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:19

Ctrl Time

2:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bryan Barberena	6 / 22	10 / 27	0 / 0
1	Joe Ellenberger	12 / 22	20 / 30	2 / 3
2	Bryan Barberena	26 / 60	27 / 61	0 / 0
2	Joe Ellenberger	9 / 30	11 / 32	0 / 1
3	Bryan Barberena	31 / 40	69 / 84	0 / 0
3	Joe Ellenberger	3 / 8	4 / 9	1 / 1

Joe Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19