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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joe Duffy won · U-DEC R3

Elo1386

Elo1360

Joe DuffyvsReza MadadiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · Saturday, March 18, 2017London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Joe Duffy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoe Duffy: Well-roundedvsReza Madadi: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Reza Madadi wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Joe Duffy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Reza Madadi at +425 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joe Duffy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Reza Madadi has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Reza Madadi has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Duffy

Red Corner

Reza Madadi

Blue Corner

-550

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+425

(19%)

1386

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe DuffyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dustin Poirier · Jan 16

SUBvs Mitch Clarke · Jul 16

KOvs James Vick · Nov 17

vs Marc Diakiese · Mar 19

SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 20

latest

Reza Madadi

oldest →

vs Cristiano Marcello · Oct 12

SUBvs Michael Johnson · Apr 13

vs Norman Parke · Oct 15

KOvs Yan Cabral · May 16

vs Joaquim Silva · May 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe DuffyMetricReza Madadi

2.68

Strikes / min

2.51

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

54%

Strike defense

66%

0.96

TDs / 15 min

3.17

64%

Takedown defense

89%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.10evenly matched on net striking-0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe DuffyReza Madadi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Duffy(8 fights)Reza Madadi(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.0|Blue -26.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -60.0|Blue +60.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe DuffyTargetReza Madadi

By target zone

27% acc · 76%

Head

40% acc · 71%

64% acc · 18%

Body

78% acc · 25%

75% acc · 6%

Leg

25% acc · 4%

By position

28% acc · 84%

Distance

39% acc · 79%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

83% acc · 18%

88% acc · 14%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Duffy rounds

even

Reza Madadi rounds

Round 1Joe Duffy edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control3:34

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 2Joe Duffy edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Joe Duffy edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:46

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 161

Sig Strikes

28 / 63

36.7%

Sig Str %

46.3%

61 / 172

Total Strikes

34 / 71

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 12

—

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

4:20

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Reza Madadi	4 / 7	10 / 15	2 / 3
1	Joe Duffy	9 / 17	17 / 26	0 / 0
2	Reza Madadi	7 / 25	7 / 25	0 / 4
2	Joe Duffy	21 / 77	21 / 77	0 / 0
3	Reza Madadi	17 / 31	17 / 31	0 / 5
3	Joe Duffy	21 / 67	23 / 69	0 / 0

Joe Duffy

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Reza Madadi

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7