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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joe Duffy won · SUB R1
Elo1386
Joe Duffy
Elo1362

Joe DuffyvsMitch ClarkeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · Thursday, July 7, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joe Duffy won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:25

Model Prediction: Mitch Clarke wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Joe Duffy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mitch Clarke at +390 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joe Duffy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Duffy
Red Corner
VS
Mitch Clarke
Blue Corner
-440
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+390
(20%)
1386
Elo
1362
38
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe DuffyL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Dustin Poirier · Jan 16
W
vs Reza Madadi · Mar 17
L
KOvs James Vick · Nov 17
L
vs Marc Diakiese · Mar 19
L
SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 20
latest
Mitch ClarkeL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Anton Kuivanen · Jul 12
W
vs John Maguire · Jun 13
W
SUBvs Al Iaquinta · May 14
L
vs Michael Chiesa · Apr 15
L
KOvs Alex White · Sep 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe DuffyMetricMitch Clarke
2.68
Strikes / min
2.35
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
3.27
54%
Strike defense
47%
0.96
TDs / 15 min
0.64
64%
Takedown defense
50%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.10evenly matched on net striking-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1520 vs 1488Strikes20.0 vs 27.4Takedowns0.0 vs 0.6Sub Atts0.67 vs 0.40Form0.1 vs -0.3
Joe DuffyMitch Clarke

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joe Duffy(8 fights)Mitch Clarke(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +24.8|Blue -24.8
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -273.0|Blue +273.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe DuffyTargetMitch Clarke

By target zone

3
43% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
50% acc · 100%

By position

1
50% acc · 33%
Distance
1
25% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
2
40% acc · 67%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Joe Duffy rounds
0
even
0
Mitch Clarke rounds
Round 1Joe Duffy edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:15
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
3 / 7
Sig Strikes
1 / 4
42%
Sig Str %
25%
3 / 7
Total Strikes
1 / 4
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:15
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mitch Clarke1 / 41 / 40 / 00
1Joe Duffy3 / 73 / 70 / 01

Joe Duffy

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8

Mitch Clarke

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7