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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joel Alvarez won · SUB R1
Elo1386
Joe Duffy
Elo1514
Joel Alvarez

Joe DuffyvsJoel AlvarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Saturday, July 18, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Joel Alvarez won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:25

Model Prediction: Joel Alvarez wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joel Alvarez at +250 American odds

+$250 profit

$350 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joe Duffy threatens submissions; Joel Alvarez has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Joe Duffy has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Joel Alvarez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Duffy
Red Corner
VS
Joel Alvarez
Blue Corner
-335
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
1386
Elo
1514
38
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'3"
185.42 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe DuffyL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Dustin Poirier · Jan 16
W
SUBvs Mitch Clarke · Jul 16
W
vs Reza Madadi · Mar 17
L
KOvs James Vick · Nov 17
L
vs Marc Diakiese · Mar 19
latest
Joel Alvarez
oldest →
W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23
W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24
W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24
W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25
L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe DuffyMetricJoel Alvarez
2.68
Strikes / min
4.53
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
3.03
54%
Strike defense
53%
0.96
TDs / 15 min
0.18
64%
Takedown defense
46%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.10Δ 2.60 — meaningful gap+1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1502Strikes2.6 vs 2.5Takedowns0.8 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.00Form-0.7 vs 0.1
Joe DuffyJoel Alvarez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Joe Duffy(8 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -127.2|Blue +127.2
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +77.0|Blue -77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe DuffyTargetJoel Alvarez

By target zone

6
38% acc · 43%
Head
7
29% acc · 39%
4
80% acc · 29%
Body
3
75% acc · 17%
4
80% acc · 29%
Leg
8
89% acc · 44%

By position

14
54% acc · 100%
Distance
18
50% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Joe Duffy rounds
1
even
0
Joel Alvarez rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control0:09
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
14 / 26
Sig Strikes
18 / 37
53%
Sig Str %
48%
14 / 26
Total Strikes
18 / 37
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:09
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Joel Alvarez18 / 3718 / 370 / 01
1Joe Duffy14 / 2614 / 261 / 10

Joe Duffy

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8

Joel Alvarez

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights11