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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joe Duffy won · SUB R1
Elo1386
Joe Duffy
Elo1490
Ivan Jorge

Joe DuffyvsIvan JorgeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites · Saturday, July 18, 2015Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Joe Duffy won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:05

Style matchupJoe Duffy: Well-roundedvsIvan Jorge: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Ivan Jorge wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Joe Duffy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ivan Jorge at +650 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joe Duffy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Joe Duffy threatens submissions; Ivan Jorge has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Duffy
Red Corner
VS
Ivan Jorge
Blue Corner
-1000
(91%)
Vegas Odds
+650
(13%)
1386
Elo
1490
38
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe DuffyL3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mitch Clarke · Jul 16
W
vs Reza Madadi · Mar 17
L
KOvs James Vick · Nov 17
L
vs Marc Diakiese · Mar 19
L
SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 20
latest
Ivan Jorge
oldest →
W
vs Keith Wisniewski · Sep 13
L
vs Rodrigo Damm · Feb 14
W
vs Josh Shockley · Feb 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe DuffyMetricIvan Jorge
2.68
Strikes / min
3.41
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
2.91
54%
Strike defense
59%
0.96
TDs / 15 min
1.56
64%
Takedown defense
75%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.10Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1517 vs 1516Strikes15.0 vs 52.3Takedowns0.0 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.67Form1.0 vs 0.5
Joe DuffyIvan Jorge

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joe Duffy(8 fights)Ivan Jorge(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -103.9|Blue +103.9
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red -3.0|Blue +3.0
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -20.0|Blue +20.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe DuffyTargetIvan Jorge

By target zone

5
19% acc · 63%
Head
4
40% acc · 57%
2
100% acc · 25%
Body
1
33% acc · 14%
1
100% acc · 13%
Leg
2
100% acc · 29%

By position

6
23% acc · 75%
Distance
4
40% acc · 57%
2
67% acc · 25%
Clinch
3
60% acc · 43%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Joe Duffy rounds
1
even
0
Ivan Jorge rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:09Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
8 / 29
Sig Strikes
7 / 15
27%
Sig Str %
46%
10 / 31
Total Strikes
13 / 23
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:09

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ivan Jorge7 / 1513 / 230 / 20
1Joe Duffy8 / 2910 / 310 / 01

Joe Duffy

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8

Ivan Jorge

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4