Middleweight

3 Rounds

Dan Miller won · S-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1355

Joe DoerksenvsDan MillerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · Saturday, December 11, 2010Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Dan Miller won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoe Doerksen: WrestlervsDan Miller: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Dan Miller wins(64.4%)

Actual result: Dan Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Miller at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dan Miller threatens submissions; Joe Doerksen has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Doerksen

Red Corner

Dan Miller

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1351

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Doerksen

oldest →

SUBvs Tom Lawlor · May 10

SUBvs CB Dollaway · Sep 10

latest

Dan MillerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nate Marquardt · Mar 11

vs Rousimar Palhares · Aug 11

SUBvs Ricardo Funch · Jun 12

KOvs Jordan Mein · Mar 13

vs Trevor Smith · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe DoerksenMetricDan Miller

1.43

Strikes / min

2.03

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

50%

Strike defense

49%

2.02

TDs / 15 min

1.67

33%

Takedown defense

47%

2.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.36evenly matched on net striking-1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe DoerksenDan Miller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Doerksen(3 fights)Dan Miller(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.1|Blue +4.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe DoerksenTargetDan Miller

By target zone

35% acc · 75%

Head

38% acc · 94%

100% acc · 17%

Body

50% acc · 6%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

By position

41% acc · 58%

Distance

12% acc · 11%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 42%

Ground

53% acc · 89%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Doerksen rounds

even

Dan Miller rounds

Round 1Dan Miller edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:20Control

Round 2Dan Miller edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:18

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:53Control

Round 3Dan Miller edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 29

Sig Strikes

18 / 47

44.7%

Sig Str %

34.7%

135 / 162

Total Strikes

121 / 186

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 5

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

11:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dan Miller	13 / 31	47 / 70	2 / 2	1
1	Joe Doerksen	3 / 9	33 / 42	0 / 0	0
2	Dan Miller	3 / 10	28 / 48	2 / 2	0
2	Joe Doerksen	4 / 13	41 / 53	0 / 0	2
3	Dan Miller	2 / 6	46 / 68	1 / 1	0
3	Joe Doerksen	5 / 7	61 / 67	0 / 0	0

Joe Doerksen

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3

Dan Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8