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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Geane Herrera won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1369

Elo1359

Joby SanchezvsGeane HerreraUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · Friday, December 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Geane Herrera won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:28

Model Prediction: Joby Sanchez wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Geane Herrera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joby Sanchez at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Geane Herrera enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joby Sanchez has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Joby Sanchez

Red Corner

Geane Herrera

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1369

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joby SanchezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Wilson Reis · Aug 14

vs Tateki Matsuda · Jan 15

SUBvs Roberto Sanchez · Feb 18

vs Mark De La Rosa · Nov 18

latest

Geane HerreraL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ray Borg · Aug 15

vs Ali Bagautinov · Jun 16

vs Ben Nguyen · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joby SanchezMetricGeane Herrera

3.22

Strikes / min

1.51

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

5.07

63%

Strike defense

52%

0.95

TDs / 15 min

0.83

51%

Takedown defense

38%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.40Δ 3.96 — meaningful gap-3.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joby SanchezGeane Herrera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joby Sanchez(5 fights)Geane Herrera(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.1|Blue -10.1

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +202.0|Blue -202.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joby SanchezTargetGeane Herrera

By target zone

25% acc · 55%

Head

31% acc · 85%

75% acc · 44%

Body

75% acc · 8%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

34% acc · 91%

Distance

31% acc · 83%

71% acc · 9%

Clinch

33% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joby Sanchez rounds

even

Geane Herrera rounds

Round 1Joby Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Geane Herrera edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 154

Sig Strikes

40 / 118

35.5%

Sig Str %

32.5%

55 / 154

Total Strikes

42 / 120

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Geane Herrera	12 / 53	14 / 55	1 / 1
1	Joby Sanchez	31 / 79	31 / 79	0 / 0
2	Geane Herrera	28 / 65	28 / 65	0 / 0
2	Joby Sanchez	24 / 75	24 / 75	0 / 1

Joby Sanchez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5

Geane Herrera

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights4