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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Joaquin Buckley won · U-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1544

Joaquin BuckleyvsNursulton RuziboevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · Saturday, May 11, 2024St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Joaquin Buckley won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Joaquin Buckley wins(61.5%)

Actual result: Joaquin Buckley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nursulton Ruziboev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Nursulton Ruziboev is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Joaquin Buckley has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Joaquin Buckley has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Joaquin Buckley has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joaquin Buckley

Red Corner

Nursulton Ruziboev

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1516

Elo

1544

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'5"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Vicente Luque · Mar 24

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24

KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24

vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25

DECvs Sean Brady · May 26

latest

Nursulton RuziboevW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jul 23

KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Mar 24

KOvs Eric McConico · Feb 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · May 25

SUBvs Andrey Pulyaev · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joaquin BuckleyMetricNursulton Ruziboev

3.62

Strikes / min

2.59

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

2.89

58%

Strike defense

48%

1.43

TDs / 15 min

0.75

70%

Takedown defense

33%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.52evenly matched on net striking-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joaquin BuckleyNursulton Ruziboev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)Nursulton Ruziboev(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joaquin BuckleyTargetNursulton Ruziboev

By target zone

51% acc · 81%

Head

37% acc · 55%

82% acc · 16%

Body

54% acc · 42%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

30% acc · 17%

Distance

39% acc · 74%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

67% acc · 83%

Ground

58% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joaquin Buckley rounds

even

Nursulton Ruziboev rounds

Round 1Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control1:16

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control1:42

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes64

Takedowns0

Control2:32

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

86 / 156

Sig Strikes

31 / 72

48.3%

Sig Str %

41.3%

113 / 187

Total Strikes

43 / 87

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:30

Ctrl Time

0:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nursulton Ruziboev	7 / 22	11 / 27	0 / 0
1	Joaquin Buckley	8 / 23	8 / 23	2 / 2
2	Nursulton Ruziboev	8 / 21	15 / 28	0 / 0
2	Joaquin Buckley	14 / 27	23 / 37	2 / 2
3	Nursulton Ruziboev	16 / 29	17 / 32	0 / 0
3	Joaquin Buckley	64 / 106	82 / 127	0 / 0

Joaquin Buckley

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17

Nursulton Ruziboev

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights7