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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Joaquin Buckley won · KO/TKO
Elo1516
Joaquin Buckley
Elo1449
Jordan Wright

Joaquin BuckleyvsJordan WrightUFC Prediction Result

UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Saturday, November 21, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joaquin Buckley won

KO/TKO

Style matchupJoaquin Buckley: Well-roundedvsJordan Wright: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jordan Wright wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Joaquin Buckley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jordan Wright at +205 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jordan Wright enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Joaquin Buckley is a KO finisher (73% of wins). Jordan Wright has lost 60% of fights by KO.
  • Jordan Wright is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Joaquin Buckley has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Joaquin Buckley has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Jordan Wright has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joaquin Buckley
Red Corner
VS
Jordan Wright
Blue Corner
-265
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
1516
Elo
1449
32
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'2"
193.04 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24
W
KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24
W
KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24
L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25
L
DECvs Sean Brady · May 26
latest
Jordan WrightL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Jamie Pickett · May 21
L
KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 21
L
SUBvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Apr 22
L
KOvs Dusko Todorovic · Oct 22
L
vs Zac Pauga · Feb 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joaquin BuckleyMetricJordan Wright
3.62
Strikes / min
4.10
3.10
Strikes absorbed / min
6.03
58%
Strike defense
31%
1.43
TDs / 15 min
2.09
70%
Takedown defense
100%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.52Δ 2.45 — meaningful gap-1.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1504 vs 1515Strikes3.9 vs 7.8Takedowns0.8 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs 1.0
Joaquin BuckleyJordan Wright

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)Jordan Wright(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +67.4|Blue -67.4
Recent Form
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joaquin BuckleyTargetJordan Wright

By target zone

31
49% acc · 72%
Head
5
16% acc · 28%
12
71% acc · 28%
Body
12
86% acc · 67%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 6%

By position

33
49% acc · 77%
Distance
16
36% acc · 89%
3
100% acc · 7%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 11%
7
70% acc · 16%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Joaquin Buckley rounds
0
even
0
Jordan Wright rounds
Round 1Joaquin Buckley edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control1:49
Knockdowns1
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Joaquin Buckley edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
43 / 80
Sig Strikes
18 / 47
57.5%
Sig Str %
30%
59 / 96
Total Strikes
36 / 66
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:49
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jordan Wright17 / 4235 / 610 / 10
1Joaquin Buckley36 / 6952 / 850 / 20
2Jordan Wright1 / 51 / 50 / 00
2Joaquin Buckley7 / 117 / 110 / 00

Joaquin Buckley

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights17

Jordan Wright

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights7