← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Joaquin Buckley won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1516

Elo1407

Joaquin BuckleyvsAntonio ArroyoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Saturday, September 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joaquin Buckley won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:26

Model Prediction: Joaquin Buckley wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Joaquin Buckley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joaquin Buckley at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joaquin Buckley has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joaquin Buckley

Red Corner

Antonio Arroyo

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1516

Elo

1407

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24

KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24

vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25

DECvs Sean Brady · May 26

latest

Antonio ArroyoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Muniz · Nov 19

vs Deron Winn · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joaquin BuckleyMetricAntonio Arroyo

3.62

Strikes / min

2.82

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

2.02

58%

Strike defense

50%

1.43

TDs / 15 min

1.14

70%

Takedown defense

41%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.52evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joaquin BuckleyAntonio Arroyo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)Antonio Arroyo(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +108.5|Blue -108.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joaquin BuckleyTargetAntonio Arroyo

By target zone

20% acc · 29%

Head

18% acc · 19%

55% acc · 29%

Body

59% acc · 48%

81% acc · 41%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

36% acc · 83%

Distance

47% acc · 100%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joaquin Buckley rounds

even

Antonio Arroyo rounds

Round 1Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:08

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:55

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:15

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 102

Sig Strikes

21 / 46

41%

Sig Str %

46%

45 / 107

Total Strikes

30 / 57

1 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

11%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Antonio Arroyo	6 / 18	6 / 18	0 / 0
1	Joaquin Buckley	15 / 44	15 / 44	1 / 3
2	Antonio Arroyo	10 / 18	19 / 29	0 / 0
2	Joaquin Buckley	12 / 31	15 / 35	0 / 2
3	Antonio Arroyo	5 / 10	5 / 10	0 / 0
3	Joaquin Buckley	14 / 27	15 / 28	0 / 1

Joaquin Buckley

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17

Antonio Arroyo

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3